Let's Talk About Safety

"Snuze: Needs another Swede" (markg) 01/23/2020 at 09:25 • Filed to: None

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As BahamaTodd pointed out in !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , Volvo has a clever marketing campaign to give away $1 million dollars worth of vehicles to randomly selected contestants if, and only if, a team scores a safety during Super Bowl LIV. This got me interested in the metrics regarding safeties and Volvo’s giveaway.

For those who do not know what a safety is, it’s when a ball becomes dead in the goal area (end zone) of the team in possession of the ball (the offense), unless the ball arrived their at the impetus of the other team (the defense). There are several different scenarios that can cause this to happen, one of the more common ones is the defense sacks the quarterback in his own end zone. A normal safety is worth 2 points.

As an interesting aside that I was unaware of, a safety can also occur during a “try” (the play during which the offensive team attempts an extra point kick or 2 point conversion following a touch down). This is called a Conversion Safety and it is only worth 1 point. A single point safety has never occurred in an NFL game and only 9 times in collegiate football (collegiate football hosts an order of magnitude more games which is why it’s happened several times there and not at all in professional play).

Statistically, safeties are somewhat rare in football. The 1943 football season saw no safeties scored by any team, and the 1988 season saw the most safeties with 26. The highest safety rate was in the 1932 with 8 in 48 games (1 in 6) and the lowest frequency, aside from the 1943 season, was 3 in 105 games (1 in 35) during the 1966 season . The league average is approximately 1 in 14 games. Curiously, Super Bowls have a rate of safe ties higher than even the 1932 season, with 1 safety in every 5.89 Super Bowls.

The most recent Super Bowl safety was in Super Bowl XLVIII which occurred in 2014 (2013 season). That means Super Bowl LIV will be the 6th Super Bowl since the last safety, meaning that, statistically speaking, we are due for a safety.

If a safety does occur, Volvo will have to give out $1 million worth of cars. What does $1 million worth of Volvos look like? I did some scouting and discovered that the cheapest Volvo is the XC40 with a base price of $34,695. That is a zero option car, a unicorn that doesn’t exist, but presumably would be the car you would receive from Volvo if you were a winner and it was your build. If every entrant picked the base XC40 as their car, $1 million would net 28.82 Volvo. Assuming they are cutting this off at exactly $1 million, that means 28 people could win XC40s. Sorry #29, your XC40 was $6,155 too much.

On the other hand, the most expensive Volvo I could come up with was a loaded XC90 with every single option box checked, which tipped the scales at $98,555. If every entrant selected this, Volvo would only be able to give away 10 vehicles. There would be only $14,450 left over, not enough to cover even half of a base XC40.

Assuming most people don’t pick the most expensive option, and don’t pick the cheapest option, we arrive on an average vehicle price of $66,625 (assuming normal distribution and non-discretized options, which is not true in this case but after looking at several combinations myself this does seem to be a reasonable approximation). At this average price Volvo will be giving away almost exactly 15 cars (15.009 to be more precise). At this rate Volvo will only have $625 left in the $1 million prize coffer.

So what cars did Oppo pick? On BahamaTodds thread I mainly saw mentions of V90s, V60s, and S60s. Anyone opting for the cheap, base SUV? Anyone trying to squeeze Volvo for a top spec XC90? I went for a V60 Polestar, in black, no add-ons, for an MSRP of $68,295.

Good luck to you all and I hope somewhere between 10 and 28 of us win Volvos!

jimz > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 09:33

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another one is if the QB backs up all the way out of the end zone. The last time I saw that was- of course- the Lions.

facw > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 09:34

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I did a Polestar V60, which I think came out a bit cheaper than your average. I wouldn’t actually expect to get that though, as the fine print says they’ll provide the closest car to your configuration from available inventory, and Volvo dealers don’t really stock the V60 (there’s only 4 for sale within 100 miles of me, and all of them are FWD T5s).

Still I’m all for safeties!

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 09:43

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Red v60 

Chuckles > jimz 01/23/2020 at 09:47

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Dan Orlovsky is a much better analyst than he was a QB. 

WRXforScience > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 09:50

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If something has say a 1 in 10 chance of happening and it hasn’t happened in the last 10 chances, that doesn’t mean that the event is “due” (assuming the events are independent of each other as opposed to like drawing cards).

Chuckles > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 09:50

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I appreciate this statistical analysis. I think that the higher rate of safeties in super bowls is mostly just because it's too small of a sample size. I'm not sure that it's statistically significant. One way to look at that would be to compare average starting field position is super bowls vs average starting field position in regular season games. But considering how the touchback rules have changed that might be difficult. 

Stapleface-Now Hyphenated! > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 09:50

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I too optioned a V60. I went for a Momentum in Pine Grey.

I’m sure that Volvo is probably confused as all hell with everyone all configuring wagons. lol

Snuze: Needs another Swede > facw 01/23/2020 at 09:53

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I did a base Polestar V60 (even the black, no cost paint, and no optional accessories ) and it was $68,295 so it was about $1700 above average . But that $1700 per car would add up (if everyone picked V60 Polestars), because it would work out to 14.64 cars, so only 14.

T hat’s a good point about the fine print and frankly I’d missed that. Realistically, I’d be happy with any free* new Volvo, though depending on what it was I’d say there’s at least a 50% chance I ’d j ust sell it and put the money towards other things. I could pay the Terrain off, buy a Volvo 240 project car, and put the balance in savings because our house is going to need a driveway and a new roof in the next few years.

*I didn’t read the fine print but I’m assuming the winner is still responsible for tax, tags, title, and destination fees. In my state (Virginia) vehicle sales tax is 4.5%, so on an average priced Volvo as calculated above, that’s $3,000 in tax. I want to say our tag and title fees total up to around $250, destination is usually around $1,000. So I’d be looking at around $4,25 0 out of pocket for a “free” Volvo.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > WRXforScience 01/23/2020 at 09:59

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Look, I earned a C in “Production Statistics”, and that was a hard fought victory! I’m sure Dr. Cuckier was happy to have me out of his class, and I was glad to be out. And lets all just be thankful I don’t work in the manufacturing industry where I might make safety critical parts that would rely on me getting the right number of sigmas (it’s 6, right?). I mean, I’m not even sure if that’s how it works.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > Chuckles 01/23/2020 at 10:05

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I think you’re on to something. You’re probably right regarding sample size, but I do think you’re on to something regarding analysis of starting field position. I’m a very casual football watcher (I really can’t remember the last time I watched an entire game start to finish), but I’m familiar enough with it. I wonder if there’s enough of a change in tactics during the Super Bowl that would result in teams being more likely to be in positions where safetie s could occur? Maybe your starting field position analysis would tease that out?

facw > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:06

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Yeah winners are responsible for all those taxes and fees. And sounds like I misremembered the V60 pricing.

Still a pretty good win even if you only got a base XC40.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > Stapleface-Now Hyphenated! 01/23/2020 at 10:09

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facw pointed out something interesting above - the rules actually say they will provide the vehicle out of inventory that is closest to your build. He said there are also only 4 V60s near him. I think it would be funny if a bunch of Oppos won and they had to shuffle around a bunch of V60s to fulfill our prizes. 

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:10

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I want to know what the kind of incompetence required for a conversion safety looks like. You have to go 90 yards backwards without deciding that shit has gone completely sideways and falling on the ball or booting it out of bounds to end the suffering. How does that even happen?

facw > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:15

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Honestly I think schools would be well served to ditch some mathematics in favor of having a stats class be a standard part of the curriculum. Most people won’t end up needing calculus, and they almost certainly aren’t going to need to do constructions with only a compass and straightedge, but even a basic understanding of statistics is relevant to pretty much everyone’s life.  

Snuze: Needs another Swede > facw 01/23/2020 at 10:15

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Wow!

This comment got me thinking and I checked Car Gurus real quick for Volvo V60 inventory. I only see 1 Polestar... and it’s a 2018! And it’s i n California! But it’s a deal, listed for only $50k, down from an MSRP of $63k!

All total, there are 2073 brand new V60s of all flavors on Car Gurus, 2018 of these are 2020s, but there are still 31 2019 cars on lots and 24 2018 models!

Snuze: Needs another Swede > facw 01/23/2020 at 10:21

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I agree. It was a degree requirement for Mechanical Engineering at my university, but the focus was on production and manufacturing, basically “ how few parts can we get away with testing but confidently say everything is good?” It should have been a high school requirement. If it was, then I would have taken it twice and been half as likely to confuse dependent and independent events! (That’s how it works, right?)

promoted by the color red > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:29

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I’ll let others fight over a Polestar wagon - I went with a mid tier V 60 R-design in dark blue so I can hopefully have one working Volvo wagon.

promoted by the color red > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:29

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I’ll let others fight over a Polestar wagon - I went with a mid tier V 60 R-design in dark blue so I can hopefully have one working Volvo wagon.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > TheTurbochargedSquirrel 01/23/2020 at 10:36

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Running it back has happened twice, Roy Riegel in the 1929 Rose Bowl, and Jim Marshall of the V ikings in a 1964 game against the 49ers. However neither of these were during a conversion play.

In a conversion play, there are 2 options : Offensive and Defensive.

Offensive conversion safeties are the only ones that have occurred (and only in college games) . It sounds like in every occurrence the defense has blocked the extra point attempt, recovered the ball, and then fumbled it in, or threw it out of, their own end zone. In this case the point is still awarded to the offense.

As for a defensive conversion, there are 2 two options. I suppose the offense could gain control of the ball outside of the end zone (catching a blocked kick, maybe?) and then in confusion run it back to their own end zone. But there’s a more interesting possibility - the defense blocks the extra point, takes control of the ball , runs it all the way back across the field, l oses control of the ball just before scoring, the offense recovers control of the ball, and then the defense forces the offense to a halt in their own end zone. It’s totally ludicrous but entirely possible and completely legal according to the rules.

JustAnotherG6 > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:44

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I opted for the V90 route.

Chuckles > WRXforScience 01/23/2020 at 10:45

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It's the gambler's fallacy. Past results don't predict future outcomes. That's why you shouldn't pay attention to the board of recent results next to the roulette wheel (assuming a fair game). You can't look at that board and say "23 hasn't come up in the last 50 spins. It's due!" That only works on a very large scale. Over the course of tens of thousands of spins, yes they should all come up equally. But in the last 50? That's insignificant.

Sovande > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:51

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I chose the Polestar V60 in Osmium Grey and the V90 in blue. Both were about $70k. I'd rather have the V90.

Chuckles > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 10:52

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I think that it is safe to say that most safeties occur on drives that start inside the 10 yard line, right? Not all, but the majority. So if you could know the average number of drives per game that start inside the 10 yard line, and then look at the same thing but for SB games, maybe that would provide some insight. But I do think it's mostly an issue of sample size. 

Textured Soy Protein > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 11:01

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V60 Polestar is the only correct answer, but WTF is up with the lack of color choices? The only options are black, gray, silver and pearl white.

FOH with these boring ass color choices, Volvo.

WRXforScience > Chuckles 01/23/2020 at 11:31

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Exactly!

facw > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 12:02

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I technically had two other classes scheduled at the same time as my college statistics class. One of them wasn’t an issue, it had a lecture at another time that I couldn’t sign up for because the section times were wrong, but the other did really conflict. I had already taken a summer college stats class, but one which wasn’t high level enough to meet the requirements for my major, but it still allowed me to coast through the more advanced class, missing most of the lectures (did create a small problem for exam scheduling)

Remember the Merit from GTA SA? > Snuze: Needs another Swede 01/23/2020 at 13:09

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I am offended that you thought we MIGHT not know what a safety is. Did you just assume my (favorite) sport? [TRIGGERED]

Hold on, it’s not 2017 anymore...